|
The solution....
The fact is that your chances of chosing the goat is 2 in 3 and the car 1 in 3.
If you choose either goat, the other goat will be eliminated and if you then choose to switch - you will get the car. There is 2 in 3 chance of this occuring
If you initially pick the car, switching will come out incorrect. There is a 1 in 3 chance of this occuring.
Therefore switching doubles your chances from 1 in 3 into 2 in 3.
--------
Still confused? This is far more apparent of a case of 100 doors. Your chance of getting the first one right is 1 in 100. If once you had selected your door, 98 were then opened and eliminated, it would be far more likely that the other door left would be the correct door. The correct strategy would then be to switch....
|