Fun Probability problem

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Old 02-20-2007, 03:07 PM
armourall armourall is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 56
What would you think if I stated it like this...

Original Selection:
  1. The player originally picked goat 1.
  2. The player originally picked goat 2.
  3. The player originally picked the car.
Chances of originally selecting the car: 1 in 3.



Second Selection:
  1. The player originally picked goat 1. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has the car.
  2. The player originally picked goat 2. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has the car.
  3. The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 2.
  4. The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 1.
Chances of switching and selecting the car: 2 in 4 (1 in 2)
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