Originally Posted by armourall
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What would you think if I stated it like this...
Original Selection:- The player originally picked goat 1.
- The player originally picked goat 2.
- The player originally picked the car.
Chances of originally selecting the car: 1 in 3.
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Correct...
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Quote:
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Second Selection:[list=1][*]The player originally picked goat 1. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has the car.
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Correct
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Quote:
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[*]The player originally picked goat 2. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has the car.
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Correct
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Quote:
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- The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 2.
- The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 1.
Chances of switching and selecting the car: 2 in 4 (1 in 2)
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Nope - there is only 1 car behind the doors not two....
Just because there are four permutations of what can occur doesn't mean you have four choices. It really doesn't matter if you eliminate goat 1 or goat 2 when you have picked the car. If you switch, you will lose either way....
Make this any easier to understand ?